Curso de Estadística, Granada (España) 2010, 21-22 Junio
Statistics in Paternity and Relationship Testing
Jefatura Superior de Policía de Andalucía Oriental
C/ La Palmita, 1. 18014 - Granada (Spain)
IMPORTANT: SEE BUS TRANSFER TIMETABLE IN ANNEX BELOW
Lecturer: Max P. Baur, with Antonio Amorim and Ángel Carracedo
Maximum number of participants: 60-75
Registration fee: 100 euros (GHEP members); 150 euros (non-GHEP members)
Necessary tools: paper, pencil, simple pocket calculator
Optional: if possible, bring a laptop with WINDOWS (XP, Vista, 7)
Prior knowledge: none
Language: English + help from Spanish and Portuguese colleagues (Ángel Carracedo and Antonio Amorim)
MONDAY JUNE 21, 2010
09:30 -10:45 h Registration and payment (only cash, no cards)
11:00 - 12:30 Joint lecture for all participants
I) Introduction
II) Elementary probability theory: a. Probability model
b. Additivity of probabilities for disjunct events
c. Independence - multiplication
d. Conditional probabilities
12:30 - 14:00 Lunch break
14:00 - 15:30 Joint lecture for all participants
III) Elementary population genetics: a. Frequencies - gene (allele) frequencies, genotype frequencies, phenotype frequencies, haplotype frequencies
b. Hardy - Weinberg equilibrium IV) Simple paternity case - Trio a. Hypotheses b. Calculation of X and Y
c. Likelihood ratio Y/X and paternity index PI
d. Posterior probability W, Bayes Theorem
15:30 - 16:00 Coffee break
16:00 - 18:00 3 groups of 25 participants in separate rooms
V) Practical problems from population genetics: a. Estimation of gene frequencies from a sample
b. Testing of Hardy Weinberg Equilibrium
VI) Simple paternity testing by computer: a. Installation of the software W-VAT on the laptops
b. Trio cases / Duo cases
18:00 h End of workshop day 1
TUESDAY JUNE 22, 2010
9:30 - 11:00 Joint lecture for all participants
I) Complex cases 1: a. Deficiency case with grandparents
b. General deficiency cases - complex pedigrees, multiple hypotheses
11:00 - 11:30 Coffee break
11:30 - 12:30 Joint lecture for all participants
II) Complex cases 2: a. Y-chromosomal markers, X-chromosomal markers
b. Possible mutations, possible silent alleles
12:30 - 14:00 Lunch break
14:00 - 16:00 3 groups of 25 participants in separate rooms
III) Solving complex cases with the software: a. Complex pedigrees
b. X-chrom. / Y-chrom. Markers
c. Possible mutations
Please bring your own problems to the workshop !!!
16:00 - 16:30 Coffee break
16:30 - 17:30 Joint session
IV) Final discussion of general questions and problems in the plenum
ANNEX
BUS TRANSFER FROM/TO HOTEL LUNA & HOTEL NAZARÍES
MONDAY 21
BUS 1 FROM H. NAZARÍES (9:00 h) & H. LUNA (9:15 h) TO JEFATURA SUPERIOR DE POLICÍA
18:00 h BUS 1 FROM JEFATURA SUPERIOR DE POLICÍA TO H. LUNA-NAZARÍES
TUESDAY 22
BUS 1 FROM H. NAZARÍES (8:30 h) & H. LUNA (8:45 h) TO JEFATURA SUPERIOR DE POLICÍA
17:30 h BUS 1 FROM JEFATURA SUPERIOR DE POLICÍA TO H. LUNA-NAZARÍES